HomeMy WebLinkAbout2005-08-09 DRAFT Traffic Impact StudyTraffic Impact Study
Lowe's Home Improvement Center
Oak Park Heights, MN
August 9, 2005
Prepared For:
CSM Corporation
Prepared By:
WANT
ENGINEERING, INC.
233 Park Avenue South, Suite 200
Minneapolis, MN 55415
Draft
Table of Contents
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Table ontents Ooe00000000000000 00000 .•o000O00000000000ee6000e000090 .00000000.0. 000000000000.0000.0.000. 000000000 000000ea000a0000OOmesomo9aa i
List of Figures iii
List Tables. 00106.0• 00000000000 •e0000000OOO.e0oOa0000 .00000410000000.0000000.00.00 000000006 00 000000.00000000000.0.00..00OOO GOOOOO0000.a iii
1 .0 Introduction OQa0.ao0000.0a00 ego 000a0000a00. 900moa0. 0.00000OOOOOOOOOeaoo.o00ao•.000 aaoa00000000000000• OOO. 0000000.0.0••OOOO••0000•e••0OOO 001
1.1 Proposed Project Location and Characteristics 1
1.2 Regional Roadway Network 1
1.3 Project Site Access 2
1.4 Purpose and Elements of Study 2
2 .0 Methodology and Assumptions megoveg00000m000meem000000meomoopecoomooveaoeopeaae000e00000eoGoomeoct000000mosto 5
2.1 Study Area 5
2.2 Study Years and Analysis Scenarios 5
2.3 Planned Land Developments 6
2.4 Planned Roadway Improvements 7
2.5 Technical Analysis 8
3 .0 Existing Conditions ••ooe00 0000000 .00000.0.0000000000000.000000000 00a00000000000000000000e0.0000 0000. 0000 0. 0000..000000aa0.000aa0.ae..0.14
3.1 Intersection Lane Geometries and Traffic Control 14
3.2 Existing Signal Operations and Timing 14
33 Existing Traffic Volumes 15
3.4 Two -way Stop Control Analysis Calibration 15
3.5 Analysis and Results 16
3.6 Identification of Deficiencies 16
4 .0 Traffic Forecasts 000.0.00000000 000.00.00 000.000000. 000. 0met•• 6. 600ee •oe••00.0•eeeee•aeeo•eoe0••• aaeaemoaoa000eo .mm000aoaoaomoomoeoaomea 21
4.1 Background Growth 21
4.2 Planned Development Trip Generation 21
4.3 Proposed Project Trip Generation 22
4.4 Trip Distribution 23
4.5 Trip Assignment /Forecast Volumes 24
5 .0 Proposed Project Impact Analysis 0006000. @00100. 000000. 0•.. 00000.0.O.oa00•..BOa.0000••00eo 600 060001 .60••00.••emt00000.0000o029
5.1 Year 2010 No -build and Build Scenarios Intersection Lane Geometries and Traffic
Control (with Existing Frontage Road System) 29
5.2 Year 2010 Build Intersection Lane Geometries and Traffic Control (with St. Croix
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Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvements) 29
5.3 Scenario 2 — Year 2010 No -build Traffic Operation Analysis 30
5.4 Scenario 3 — Year 2010 Build Traffic Operation Analysis (with Existing Frontage
Road System) 31
5.5 Scenario 4 -- Year 2010 Build Traffic Operation Analysis (with St. Croix River
Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvements) 32
6 .0 Evaluation of Mitigation Alternatives00oaee001700904360000000000000080490.90091709000.009 999999 esooceosesosoaosoaos syseaoaoaeeo38
6.1 Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 — Roadway Geomtrics 38
6.2 Interim Mitigation Alternative 2 — Directional Signing 39
6.3 59 Street Connection Alternative 40
7 .0 Summary and Conclusions 017 08 00600.000.41060000000000 o0000 090. 00000000sos aoeoeoe9o0oe0os00000e000eeeeeee .eee.o.aeeeooaaeeoea00046
7.1 Project Description and Purpose 46
7.2 Methodology and Assumptions 46
7.3 Traffic Forecasts 47
7.4 Traffic Operation Analysis 47
7.5 Evaluation of Mitigation Alternatives 49
7.6 Conclusion 50
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List of Figures
Figure 1-1. Project Location 3
Figure 1 -2. Proposed Site Plan 4
Figure 2-1. Planned Land Development 12
Figure 2-2. Planned Roadway Improvements 13
Figure 3-1. Existing Intersection Lane Geometrics and Traffic Control 18
Figure 3-2. Scenario 1 — Year 2005 Existing Condition PM Peak Hour Turning Movement
Volumes 19
Figure 3-3. Scenario 1 — Year 2005 Existing Condition PM Peak Hour LOS 20
Figure 4-1. Regional Distribution 25
Figure 4-2. Scenario 2 — Year 2010 No-build PM Peak Hour Turning Movement Volumes 26
Figure 4 -3. Scenario 3 — Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour Turning Movement Volumes 27
Figure 4 -4. Scenario 4 -- Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour Turning Movement Volumes 28
Figure 5-1. Year 2010 Intersection Lane Geometrics and Traffic Control 34
Figure 5 -2. Scenario 2 -- Year 2010 No -build PM Peak Hour LOS 35
Figure 5 -3. Scenario 3 - Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour LOS 36
Figure 5-4. Scenario 4 — Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour LOS 37
Figure 6 -1. Interim. Mitigation Alternative 2 — Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour
Turning Movement Volumes 42
Figure 6-2. Mitigation Alternative 2 .. Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour LOS 43
Figure 6-3. 59 Street Connection Alternative --- Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour
Turning Movement Volumes 44
Figure 6-4. 59 Street Connection Alternative - Year 2010 Build Forecast PM Peak Hour LOS 45
List of 'fables
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Table 2--1. Level of Service Criteria 10
Table 3 -1. Estimated Year 2005 ADT Volumes 15
Table 3-2. Field Collected Two-way Stop Critical Gap (see.) 16
Table 4-1. Forecast Background Growth Rates 22
Table 4 -2. Year 2010 Planned Developments Trip Generation 22
Table 4.3. Year 2010 Proposed Project Trip Generation 23
Table 4 -4. Forecast Year 2030 ADT Volumes 24
Table 6 -1. Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 -- Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road LOS 39
Table 6-2. Interim Mitigation Alternative 2 -- Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road LOS 40
Table 6 -3. 59 Street Connection Alternative — Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road LOS 40
Table 7-1. Summary of Analysis Results 51
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1.0 Introduction
CSM Corporation is proposing to construct a Lowe's Home Improvement Store with a mixed use of
specialty retail stores and restaurants, referred to the in following as the "Proposed Project," in Oak Park
Heights, Minnesota. Alliant Engineering, Inc. was retained by CSM Corporation to complete the site plan
and to conduct a Traffic Impact Study (TIS) for the Proposed Project.
This report documents the existing traffic conditions in the vicinity of the site. It then estimates the traffic
generated by the Proposed Project, distributes and assigns these trips to the adjacent roadway system and
evaluates traffic operations of key intersections and those providing access to and from the site. Based on
the analysis, the report suggests mitigating roadway and/or traffic control measures to accommodate
future traffic levels in the system.
Id Proposed Project Location and Characteristics
The Proposed Project is located at on the southwest quadrant of the Trunk Highway (TH) 36 and
Oakgreen Avenue intersection, the northern boundary of Oak Park Height's city limits. At the present
time, the Project Site is vacant grassland. Wal -Mart and Applebee's border the Proposed Project Site to
the west; and a few small privately owned businesses and ten newly constructed townhome's are located
immediately to the east. Figure 14 shows the geographical location of the Proposed Project Site. The
Proposed Project is situated within Oak Park Height's commercial district, which generally extends
between TH 5 and Osgood Avenue.
The Proposed Project involves the construction of a Lowe's Horne Improvement Center (141,300 square
foot store with a 32,000 square foot outdoor Garden Center), 25,000 square feet of specialty retail stores,
a 5,500 square foot bank with drive -up tellers and 20,000 square feet of high -turn over sit down
restaurants. The Proposed Project Site Plan is illustrated in Figure 1 -2.
L2 Regional Roadway Network
Lowe's Horne Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Critical to the success and accessibility of the Proposed Project is the characteristics and condition of the
supporting roadway network. Each of the roadways surrounding the Proposed Project Site can be
described by their function. Functional classification is a process by which streets and highways are
grouped into classes according to the type of service they provide and volume levels expected to be
accommodated. Equally important, the roadway functional classification sets guidelines to the types of
roadway improvements and access spacing that should be implemented. The primary roadways
surrounding the Proposed Project Site as illustrated in Figure 14 are summarized below:
* TH 36 is an eastlwest Principal Arterial roadway. TI 13 d borders the north side of the Proposed
Project Site and provides a regional connection to St. Paul, Minneapolis and downtown
Stillwater.
• The North Frontage Road and South Frontage Road are east /west Collector roadways, providing
access to the area commercial developments located along TH 36. The frontage road system
generally extends between TH 5 on the west to the east of Osgood Avenue.
• 58 Street is also an east /west Collector roadway providing the commercial district with
alternative access on the southern boundary of the Proposed Project Site. 58 Street extends
between TH 5 on the west and Oakgreen Avenue on the east.
• Oakgreen Avenue is a north /south Arterial roadway, which serves sub - regional travel needs.
Oakgreen Avenue provides the Proposed Project Site with access to commercial /residential north
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of TH 36 and access to the downtown Stillwater region. In addition, Oakgreen Avenue serves a
large geographic region south of TH 36.
O Norell Avenue is a northlsouth Collector roadway, which serves primarily the area commercial
developments both north and south of TH 36. Norell Avenue terminates at 58 Street on its
southern limit and at Orleans Street on its northern limit.
1.3 Project Site Access
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
To facilitate the expected traffic patterns of any future development located on this property, the City of
Oak Park Heights will be constructing a northlsouth public roadway, referred to as Norwich Avenue.
Norwich Avenue, as discussed in a later section, will terminate at the South Frontage Road on its northern
limit and at 58 Street on its southern limit. The Proposed Project will provide primary access points
along Norwich Avenue. A secondary point of access will be provided via the existing Novak Avenue
alignment, which currently serves as an access to Wal -Mart and Applebee's. Although Norwich Avenue
is a public roadway, its primary purpose is to facilitate circulation within the Project Site, and to feed the
development generated traffic to the South Frontage Road and to 5 8 thi Street.
L4 Purpose and Elements of Study
The purpose of the analysis was to identify potential traffic impacts associated with the Proposed Project,
and to identify strategies for improving or mitigating these potential impacts. The following elements are
included in this study:
® Methodology and Assumptions (Section 2.0)
® Existing Conditions (Section 3.0)
• Traffic Forecasts (Section 4.0)
▪ Proposed Project Impact Analysis (Section 5.0)
• Evaluation of Mitigation Alternatives (Section 6.0)
• Summary and Conclusions (Section 7.0)
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2.0 Methodology and Assumptions
This section documents key methodology and assumptions included in evaluating the traffic impacts
associated with the Proposed Project.
2.1 Study Area
It is important to define the impact area of the Proposed Project. The addition of a commercial land use
among a fairly dense commercial region is expected to result in an increase of multipurpose and pass -by
trips between the area developments; therefore, new longer regional trips would be less. As such, the most
discernable traffic impacts would be expected to occur in the immediate vicinity of the Proposed Project.
Key intersections included in the TIS were selected based on the potential level of project-related impacts.
The following key intersections were determined critical to the traffic operation analysis:
i TH 36 at Oakgreen Avenue
i TH 36 at Norell Avenue
® Oakgreen Avenue at North Frontage Road
• Oakgreen Avenue at South Frontage Road
• Oakgreen Avenue at 58 Street
• Norell Avenue at South Frontage Road
As a result of the Proposed Project and the Norwich Avenue Public Street Project (discussed later), the
2010 future condition scenarios included the following additional intersections in the TIS:
® Norwich Avenue at South Frontage Road
• Norwich Avenue at Central Internal Access
• Norwich Avenue at 58 Street
202 Study Years and Analysis Scenarios
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
The Proposed Project is expected to begin construction in 2006 with completion anticipated by the
beginning of year 2007. Typically, traffic conditions for the year after opening of a proposed development
are analyzed; however, for the purpose of comparing several analysis scenarios in conjunction with the
expected completion of the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnIDOT) St. Croix River Bridge
Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project, the forecast horizon year of 2010 was evaluated. In
addition to and consistent with the Metropolitan Council forecasts, estimated year 2030 Average Daily
Traffic (ADT) volumes are provided for the key roadways surrounding the Proposed Project Site.
The following four scenarios were chosen to specifically define or quantify the impact due to the
Proposed Project, as summarized in the following:
• Scenario 1: Year 2005 Existing
• Scenario 2: Year 2010 No -build (background growth plus other planned land developments). The
existing roadway and intersection lane geometries are assumed.
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Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
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• Scenario 3: Year 2010 Build (No -build plus the Proposed Project). The existing roadway and
intersection lane geometrics are assumed.
Scenario 3 is intended to define the interim impact of the Proposed Project and will be used to
identify any mitigation measures necessary to accommodate the future traffic volumes until
completion of the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project.
O Scenario 4: Year 2010 Build (No -build plus the Proposed Project). The future roadway and
intersection lane geometries implemented as part of the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH
36 Roadway Improvement Project are assumed.
Scenario 4 documents the impact of the Proposed Project upon completion of the St. Croix River
Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project.
As necessary, alternative mitigation measure scenarios will be identified to address any defined
deficiencies expected with the Build Scenarios.
2.3 Planned Land Developments
In addition to the Proposed Project, two other developments or expansions in the immediate vicinity of
the Proposed Project are planned to be in place prior to the 2010 analysis year. These neighboring parcels
were included in the TIS due to their proximity to the Proposed Project and potential for cumulative
traffic impacts. Figure 24 illustrates the two planned land development parcels in relation to the
Proposed Project boundaries.
The two planned land development parcels include:
1. A Townhome Development ( Oakgreen Village) Oakgreen Village is located west of Oakgreen
Avenue, north of 5 8 t 1 Street, south of the South Frontage Road and immediately east of the
Proposed Project. Although, the concept plan is currently being refined, the project Developer has
approval for the construction of townhomes on this site. Based on the most recent site plan,
Oakgreen Village is expected to consist of 120 dwelling units. Access to the future Oakgreen
Village will be provided at two locations along Norwich Avenue.
2. Future expansion of Wal -Mart. Wal -Mart is planning for the expansion of their existing facility to
be a Superstore. The planned expansion is expected to be an approximate 70,000 square foot
addition to the existing building, which may include a grocery store. The Wal-Mart property is
located immediately west of. the Proposed Project, with their two primary access points located on
Norell Avenue. Novak Avenue serves as a secondary access. With the Proposed Project, internal
access between the Project Site and Wal -Mart will be provided.
Both the Oakgreen Village and the Wal -Mart Expansion are expected to occur regardless of the Proposed
Project; therefore, traffic volumes generated with these developments were included as part of the No-
build Scenario.
The City of Oak Park Heights is currently discussing the parcel of land bound by the eastern limits of the
Proposed Project, the South Frontage Road, Oakgreen Avenue and the planned Oakgreen Village with
respect to a Tax Increment Financing (TIF) district. It is expected that any redevelopment of this land
parcel would contain commercial retail or other similar mixed use development. However, the
1 Concept Plan for a Residential Townhome Development (Oakgreen Village), FFE Consulting Engineers, dated
August 1, 2005.
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Zoo Planned Roadway Improvements
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
characteristics, feasibility and schedule for redevelopment of this land is not currently planned or known
at this time. Therefore, this parcel was not included in the TIS. A supplemental traffic study assessing the
expected traffic impacts of a commercial retail development alternative will be completed and submitted
for City review in the immediate future. The supplemental TIS will support Oak Park Heights in creating
a master development plan for this area.
The City of Oak Park Heights and MnIDGT have planned roadway and intersection geometric
improvements benefiting the key intersections within the study area. As mentioned previously, Oak Park
Heights is planning to provide a north/south public street — Norwich Avenue — connecting the South
Frontage Road with 58 Street. Based on the expected traffic volumes and character of function of
Norwich Avenue, the following geometric characteristics will be provided:
• One through travel lane in both the northbound and southbound directions. Exclusive left turn
lanes will be provided at each access point and at the terminating intersections with the South
Frontage Road and 5 8 Street. The roadway cross - section will be 44 feet from face of curb to
face of curb and will likely consist of a three -lane cross - section (with two -way center left turn
lane).
• The Norwich Avenue /South Frontage Road and Norwich Avenue/58th Street intersection are
expected to be one -way stop controlled.
The results of the traffic operation analysis and traffic forecasting process will confirm the lane
geometries required of Norwich Avenue to accommodate the expected future traffic volumes. Norwich
Avenue is expected to be constructed concurrent with the Proposed Project; however, would be
constructed with Oakgreen Village if the Proposed Project did not go forward. Therefore, the Norwich
Avenue Public Street Improvement Project is expected to be in place prior to the 2010 No -build Scenario.
A second improvement benefiting the study area and the Proposed Project is the St. Croix River Bridge
Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project. Mn /DOT has long been preparing preliminary
design plans and addressing environmental issues for a future bridge crossing of the St. Croix River in
Stillwater. The new river bridge crossing will replace and provide a much needed relief to the existing
historic lift bridge currently in operation in downtown Stillwater. In addition, to the bridge crossing,
Mn /DOT has been working with local municipalities on the redesign of TI 13 6, between TH 5 and
extending east of the future river bridge into Wisconsin.
Currently, Mn/DOT has adopted a preferred TH 36 preliminary design layout, referred to as `Alternative
B -1 with At -Grade Intersection Design" (Alternative B-1). Alternative B-1 maintains the at -grade
signalized intersections at the TH 36/Norell Avenue, TH 36/Oakgreen Avenue and TH 36/Osgood
Avenue intersections; however provides the following capacity improvements:
• The TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue intersection is being relocated approximately 330 feet to the east.
The relocation of this intersection provides for a uniform spacing of traffic signals along TH 36
(increased opportunity for signal progression) and provides for the opportunity to increase the
spacing of the North and South Frontage Road alignments.
• The North and South Frontage Road intersections with Oakgreen Avenue will be relocated a
greater distance north and south of TH 36, respectively.
• Dual left turn lanes will be provided at the signalized intersections along TH I 3 6
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Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
O A second northbound and southbound through lane along Oakgreen Avenue between the South
Frontage Road and North Frontage Road will be provided.
• Traffic control signals are planned at the Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road and Oakgreen
Avenue /South Frontage Road intersections.
The St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project is expected to be
constructed in year 2010.
Figure 2 -2 provides an overall illustration of the planned roadway improvements included in the TIS.
Detailed lane geometries at each of the key study intersections will be illustrated in a later section.
23 Technical Analysis Process
The process for addressing traffic impacts on the roadway network included a several step technical
analysis, which included:
• Data Collection
. Traffic Forecasts
. Traffic Operation Analysis
O Assessment of Mitigation Alternatives
The key methodology and assumptions contained within each step are summarized below; however, will
be presented in greater detail in subsequent sections of this report.
25.1 Data Collection
The Proposed Project consists solely of retail and restaurant commercial uses. As such, the PM peak hour
was determined to be the critical time period for analysis. Alliant Engineering, Inc. obtained existing PM
peak hour turning movement from the St. Croix River Crossing Supplemental Draft Environmental
Impact Statement (SDEIS) Turning movement counts were field collected at the remaining key
intersections within the study area. The existing signal timing plans and traffic signal phasing were
obtained from Mn /DOT. Alliant Engineering field collected the intersection and roadway lane geometries
and conducted PM peak hour intersection operation observations to support the traffic operation
evaluation. Further discussion and presentation of existing data collected will be illustrated in Section 3.0
Existing Conditions
2.5.2 Traffic Forecasts
Expected post - development (Build Scenario) traffic volumes were developed for the PM peak hour at
each of the key intersections under the scenarios evaluated. Traffic forecasts were developed by adding
the estimated Proposed Project Site generated traffic to the background traffic. Traffic generation for the
Proposed Project was estimated using the trip generation rates provided in the ITE Trip Generation
Manual The manual is recognized, nationally, as the most reliable source on the subject.
2 St. Croix River Crossing Project 2004 Supplemental Draft Environmental Impact Statement (SDEIS) Traffic
Operation Analysis, SRF Consulting Group, Inc., May 21, 2004 Technical Memorandum
3 ITE Trip Generation Manual, Seventh Edition, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington, D. C., 2003
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Distribution of the estimated site generated trips was estimated using the Metropolitan Council Regional
Travel Demand Model ( TranPlan). Significant refinements to the Met Council socioeconomic data,
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) and roadway infrastructure were implemented within the TranPlan model
as part of the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing Study. The refined TranPlan model was used to support
this study. Further discussion and presentation of the traffic forecasting process and forecast volumes will
be illustrated in Section 4.0 Traffic Forecasts.
253 Traffic Operation Analysis
In order to determine the impacts of the Proposed Project on the surrounding roadway system, a traffic
operations analysis is performed. The analysis process includes determining level of service and queue
lengths at each of the key intersection for existing and future scenarios.
Analysis Tool
The approach to the traffic operations analysis is derived from the established methodologies documented
in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) The HCM contains a series of analysis techniques that are
used to evaluate the operation of transportation facilities under specified conditions. "Synchro6" is a
Highway Capacity Manual implementing operation analysis software package that was used to evaluate
the roadway network and as an input database for all the lane geometries, turn movement volumes, traffic
control and signal timing characteristics. Synchro6 reports several measures of effectiveness (MOE)
useful in evaluating the capacity of a system and for comparing alternative conditions for assessing
impacts.
With the existing frontage road alignments, the North and South Frontage Road intersections at Oakgreen
Avenue and Norell Avenue are in very close proximity to the traffic signals on TH 3 6. Typically, a traffic
simulation model such as SimTraffic would be used to replicate the traffic flow and vehicle queue
interaction between intersections in approximating stop controlled delay. However, due to the current
frontage road intersection characteristics and intersection spacing, motorists have adopted a driving
behavior at the North and South Frontage Road intersections, which cannot be replicated by the
SimTraffic software. With adjustments to key parameters in the HCM methodologies (based on field
data), the HCM results more closely replicated the intersection delays and vehicle queue lengths observed
in the field.
Level of Service
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
The results of the analysis are typically presented in the form of a letter grade (A-F) that provides a
qualitative indication of the operational efficiency or effectiveness. The letter grade assigned to traffic
operations analysis results is referred to as Level of Service (LOS) By definition, LOS A conditions
represent high - quality operations (i.e., motorists experience very little delay or interference) and LOS F
conditions represent very poor operations (i.e., extreme delay or severe congestion). Table 24shows a
graphical interpretation of LOS.
In accordance with MnIDOT, Washington County and Oak Park Heights guidelines, this traffic analysis
used the LOS DIE boundary as the indicator of acceptable traffic operations and congestion. LOS D is
generally considered an acceptable operating condition during the PM peak hours.
4 Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D. C., 2000
' Highway Capacity Manual, 2000
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Definition of Impacts
Table 2-1. Level of Service Criteria
Signalized Intersection
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
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Unsignalized Intersection
As previously discussed, traffic impacts can be defined in a number of ways including:
The following standards were used as the first step to define possible deficiencies:
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
1 LOS of the entire intersection
e
LOS of individual movements within an intersection
• The relationship between the queue length and the storage length of an intersection movement
• If at an intersection, the overall level of service of the intersection is expected to be at a LOS E or
F, there could be a potential deficiency
® If one or more individual movements at an intersection, the level of service is expected to be at a
LOS E or F, which results in a significant decrease in the overall operational efficiency at the
intersection, there might be a potential deficiency
• If one or more queue lengths at an intersection exceeds the storage length, which results in
significant upstream traffic impacts, there might be a potential deficiency
The next step was to determine if the deficiency warrants a roadway improvement (due to expected
background traffic or other planned land developments) or a mitigation measure (due to the Proposed
Project). The following guidelines are applied when conducting a traffic study and identifying
deficiencies that would or would not be considered warranted:
• All intersections operating at a LOS E or F as a result of background traffic or Project-generated
traffic would be considered for roadway improvements or mitigation measures where appropriate
6 Highway Capacity Manual, 2000 - - Exhibit 16 -2 for signalized intersections and Exhibit 17 -2 for unsignalized
intersections
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2.5.4 Assessment of Mitigation Alternatives
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
• Not all intersection movements expected to be at a LOS E or F require roadway improvements or
mitigation measures. For example, if an individual movement operates at a LOS E or F but has a
low volume, the movement would not be expected to significantly decrease the overall operation
at the intersection.
® If a queue length at a particular intersection exceeds the storage length causing through traffic to
spill back through the next upstream intersection, then the intersection would be considered for
roadway improvements or mitigation measures
• If a queue length at a particular intersection exceeds the storage length and does not clear out
throughout the peak hour, with the result that traffic volumes for the entire system begin to
decrease, then roadway improvements or mitigation measures would be considered
* Not all queue lengths that exceed storage lengths necessitate roadway improvements or mitigation
measures. For example, if a queue length exceeds the storage length by only a short distance, the
queue would not be expected to have a significant upstream impact. Or if the queue diminishes
(clears out) regularly throughout the peak hour, the movement would not be expected to
significantly disrupt upstream traffic
Feasible traffic control and geometric improvement and/or mitigation measure alternatives to alleviate
operational deficiencies identified in the traffic analysis are evaluated. In general, the following strategies
are considered:
• Adjusting the intersection phasing, and/or reassigning the lane geometry
• Implementing geometric improvements, including adding through lanes, adding turn lanes or
lengthening turn lanes
O Suggesting ways to reduce the number of vehicles that use that intersection or individual
intersection movement, such as directing vehicles to alternate routes, infrastructure improvements
or recommending alternate modes of transportation.
The assessment of mitigation alternatives considers measures, which are both cost - effective and feasible
with the anticipated future roadway system.
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3.0 Existing Conditions
Lowe's Home Improv,—ent Center Traffic Impact Study
To address traffic impacts from congestion related to the Proposed Project, an understanding of the
existing conditions is necessary. The traffic operations analysis for the Year 2005 Existing Condition
looked at each of the key intersections turning movement volumes, overall intersection LOS and
individual movement LOS for a typical weekday during the PM peak hour. Also included in the
assessment of the quality of current intersection operations, was the evaluation of the estimated 95
percentile queue lengths at key intersections.
3.1 Intersection Lane Geometries and Traffic Control
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Documentation of the existing and future roadway and intersection and lane geometries is a key
component for determining traffic operation levels in the study area. The lane geometries for each of the
key roadways surrounding the site are summarized in the following:
O TH 36 is a four -lane divided highway with a posted speed limit of 50 miles per hour (mph).
Exclusive left and right turn lanes are provided at all intersections along the length TH 36.
• The South Frontage Road west of Norell Avenue and extending to Novak Avenue is a three -lane
cross - section design with a two -way center left turn lane. East of Novak Avenue, the South
Frontage Road becomes a two -lane undivided roadway with a rural design and no exclusive turn
lanes. The posted speed limit along the South Frontage Road is 40 mph.
O The North Frontage Road in the vicinity of Oakgreen Avenue is a two -lane undivided roadway
and generally consists of no exclusive turning lanes. The posted speed limit along the South
Frontage Road is 40 mph.
®
Oakgreen Avenue is a two -lane undivided roadway with a rural design and a posted speed limit of
30 mph. Exclusive turn lanes are not provided along Oakgreen Avenue, with exception to its
intersection with TI-I 36, where both a right turn and a left turn lane are provided.
• Norell Avenue consists of a four -lane divided cross-section with an urban design and exclusive
turn lanes at each intersection. Norell Avenue is posted as 30 mph.
O 58 Street is a four lane undivided roadway between Norell Avenue and Oakgreen Avenue.
Exclusive turn lanes are generally not provided. The posted speed limit along 58 Street is 40
mph.
Traffic control signal systems are located at the TH 36/Norell Avenue and TH 3 6 /oakgreen Avenue
intersections. Each of the frontage road intersections at Norell Avenue and Oakgreen Avenue are two -
way stop controlled (frontage road approaches stopped). The Oakgreen Avenue/58 Street intersection is
currently a four-way stop control intersection. Figure 3 -1 documents the existing geometries and traffic
control at each of the key intersections evaluated under the year 2005 Existing Condition.
12 Existing Signal Operations and Timing
Two of the key intersections TH 3 6/Norell Avenue and TI 13 6 /0akgreen Avenue -- are currently
controlled by a traffic signal system. The operation and timing parameters of a traffic signal system
influence the capacity of an intersection. Alliant Engineering personnel field reviewed each signal system
to obtain the signal phasing (i.e., type of left turn phases and sequence). Mn/DOT Office of Traffic
provided the existing signal timing parameters. Currently, the signalized intersections along TH 36
operate in "Manual -Free" mode during all time periods of the day (i.e., actuated - uncoordinated).
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft - August 9, 2005
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Although, the quality of traffic flow and vehicle progression along TI 13 6 is less with uncoordinated
operations, the manual free operation does provide a benefit to the minor street approaches. The minor
street queue lengths generally remain short, since these approaches are typically serviced more often.
3.3 Existing Traffic Volumes
Lowe's Home lmprovc Center Traffic Impact Study
Year 2002 PM peak hour intersection turning movement volumes at each of the key intersections, with
exception to the Oakgreen Avenue 5 8th Street intersection, were obtained from the St. Croix River SDEIS
(referenced in Section 2.0). Alliant Engineering, Inc. field collected turning movement volumes at the
Oakgreen Avenue/58th Street and TH 3 6 /oakgreen Avenue intersection in July 2005. The intersection
turning movement volumes collected at TH 3 6 /oakgreen Avenue were used to confirm that the 2002
turning movement data and background growth rates were appropriate for this study area. The average
daily traffic (ADT) volumes were obtained from the Mn/DOT Traffic Flow Maps or were estimated by
assuming the PM peak hour turning movement volumes represent 10 percent of the daily roadway
segment volume.
The year 2002 turning movement and average daily traffic (ADT) volumes were adjusted to year 2005 by
applying the study area background growth rates. Background growth rate estimates are presented in
Section 4.0 Traffic Forecasts. Table 34 documents the estimated year 2005 ADT volumes. Figure 3 -2
illustrates the year 2005 Existing (Scenario 1) PM peak hour intersection turning movement volumes at
each of the key intersections.
14 Two -way Stop Control Analysis Calibration
Table 34. Estimated Year 2005 ADT Volumes
4,300
5,900
4,500
Norell Avenue South of South Fronta•e Road
South Fronta• e Road Novak Avenue to Oak + reen Avenue
58th Street ( Norell Avenue to Oakgreen Avenue)
Mn/DOT Traffic Flow Map, 2004. Volume increased by 2 percent to represent year 2005.
2 The PM peak hour is assumed to represent 10 percent of the ADT.
Roadway Segment
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
2005
Existing
With the existing frontage road alignments, the North and South Frontage Road intersections at Oakgreen
Avenue and Norell Avenue are in very close proximity to the traffic signals on TH 36. The close
proximity of these intersections in conjunction with the existing intersection traffic volumes, average
vehicle queues and the sight lines resulting from queued traffic extending northward /southward of TH 36
generates the following driver behavior:
O Vehicles proceeding from the frontage road stop controlled approach at either Oakgreen Avenue
or Norell Avenue are aggressive. Vehicles accept relatively small gaps and/or merge /nudge into
the traffic stream.
• During periods where the northbound or southbound queue lengths to the TH 36/Norell Avenue
or TI 13 6 /Oakgreen Avenue extend beyond the frontage road intersections, it is typical for the
northbound /southbound vehicle to yield and allow the stopped vehicle to pull into the traffic flow.
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Intersection
Left Turn
Through
Right Turn
Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road
7.1 1 3.9
6.5 1 3.9
6.21
Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road
7.1 1 4.5
6.51
6.21
Norell Avenue /South Frontage Road
7.51
6.51
6.91
A key parameter in the calculation of stop control delay and vehicle queue lengths is the critical gap. The
critical gap is the minimum length of time interval in the major street traffic stream that allows
intersection entry for one minor street vehicle. A field study of the average critical gap times accepted by
motorists was completed. The field collected critical gap values were used in the traffic analysis, in lieu of
the HCM default parameters, as an effort to better represent actual intersection delays and queue lengths.
Table 3-2 presents the field collected and estimated critical gaps used in the traffic analysis.
15 Analysis and Results
3.6 Identification of Deficiencies
Lowe's Home Improve._ _gent Center Traffic Impact Study
Table 3 -2. Field Collected Two -way Stop Critical Gap (sec.)
XX 1 XX = HCM Default Critical Gap Parameters 1 Field Collected Critical Gap Parameters
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
As a result of the observed critical gaps accepted, the stopped approaches experienced lower delays.
Maximum observed queue lengths were found to be approximately five or six vehicles (i.e.,
approximately 125 to 150 feet).
The existing PM peak hour turning movement LOS and overall intersection LOS for each of the key
intersections are illustrated in Figure 3 ®3. Generally, unsignalized intersections will display a LOS A,
because the higher volume movements are not stopped, so they contribute zero delay to the overall
intersection delay calculation. The minor street, or stopped approach, is the critical movement in
consideration at unsignalized locations. Therefore, at each unsignalized intersection the critical movement
vehicle delay (seconds per vehicle) is also shown in Figure 3 -3.
The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are currently operating at acceptable
levels during the PM peak hour. However, several turning movements or stop controlled approaches were
identified as having poor operations:
• The west approach (i.e., left, through and right turn movements) to the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road was reported to operate at a LOS E.
• The east and west approach left turn and south approach through movements to the TH
36/Oakgreen Avenue were reported to operate at a LOS E.
The results of the queuing analysis showed that during the PM peak hour there are no regular issues with
vehicles spilling through adjacent intersections or queues extending beyond available storage distances
with only a couple exceptions. The 95 percentile queue lengths on the north approach and south
approach to both the TH 36/Norell Avenue and TH 36/Oakgreen Avenue intersections were reported to
extend beyond the adjacent frontage road intersections.
The proximity of the North Frontage Road and South Frontage Road intersections with Oakgreen Avenue
and Norell Avenue is sub-standard, which presents both operational and safety deficiencies within the
existing transportation system. Queue lengths extending northward /southward from TH 36 and beyond
the frontage road intersections leads to motorists adopting aggressive driving behavior to enter traffic
Alliant.Engineering, Inc. .. Draft - August 9, 2005
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Lowe's Home Improv,—ent Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
flow (illustrated by the low field collected gap acceptance values); or just as unsafe, is motorists revert to
an opposite right-of-way behavior (i.e., through traffic with no stop yielding right of way to the stopped
vehicles so they may enter the traffic flow). Either situation presents an increase in the probability of
crashes occurring.
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- . -
4.0 Traffic Forecasts
Lowe's Home Impr0ti _Lent Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
In order to estimate the traffic impacts of the proposed development on the study area, it is necessary to
estimate the background traffic growth as well as the amount of traffic expected to be generated by the
Proposed Project. The traffic forecasting process consists of the following key components:
• Background traffic growth
• Other planned developments
• Proposed Project generated traffic
• Trip distribution
• Intersection assignment /forecast volumes
4.1 Background Traffic Growth
Traffic growth within Oak Park Heights and Stillwater is expected to occur between existing condition
and any future date due to other growth and development in the surrounding region. This growth is
typically termed as background traffic growth.
Another source of traffic growth arises from the implementation of roadway improvements that increase
traffic capacity or provide desired connections. This type of traffic growth is typically referred to as
induced traffic growth. The St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project
will provide an improved river crossing connection, with a substantially increased capacity. Future
forecasts completed for the proposed St. Croix River Bridge Crossing expect the new bridge will attract
nearly 30,000 new daily vehicles to the TH 36 corridor.
Based on the time horizons of improvements, anticipated development growth and consideration of the
other planned developments specifically included in the TIS, the estimated background traffic growth
forecasts were developed for key roadway segments within the study area. Background growth rates were
based on the traffic forecasting completed for the St. Croix River Crossing SDEIS. Based on comparisons
made between 2030 No -build Scenario, 2030 River Crossing Bridge Build Scenario and existing
volumes; a growth in traffic was found. This growth was assumed to occur linearly, resulting in the
annual growth rate percentages presented in Table 44.
4 ®2 Planned Development Trip Generation
In addition to background /induced traffic growth, two other developments or expansions are planned to
occur in the locations described in Section 2.0 (see Figure 2-1 ).To account for future traffic associated
with these developments in the TIS, a trip generation analysis was completed.
Trip generation for the planned development and expansion were estimated using the ITE Trip
Generation Manual. A 20 percent reduction was applied to the retail related land use to account for multi-
purpose trips with other adjacent developments within the site. Table 4 -2 presents the year 2010 trip
generation estimates for the future planned residential developments, as discussed previously in Section
2.0.
7 St. Croix River Crossing Project 2004 Supplemental Draft Environmental Impact Statement (SDEIS) Travel
Demand Forecast, SRF Consulting Group, Inc., June 17, 2004 Technical Memorandum
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft - August 9, 2005
#050049 Page 21
North Frontage Road
South Frontage Road
4.3 Proposed Project Trip Generation
#050049
Table 4 -1. Forecast Bac round Growth Rates
Roadway Segment
Growth Rate
(Percent per Year }'
Oakgreen Avenue
Norell Avenue
Lowe's Home Improl-ent Center Traffic Impact Study
' Growth rates computed from forecast volumes developed for the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing Study.
Source:
1. St. Croix River Crossing Project 2004 Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement, SRF Consulting Group, Inc.
Travel Demand Forecasts Technical Memorandum, June 17, 2004 and Traffic Operation Analysis
Technical Memorandum, May 21, 2004
2. Alliant Engineering, Inc.
Table 4 -2. Year 2010 Planned Develo s meats Tri . Generation
Land Use /ITE Code'
Low -Rise Residential condominium/Townhouse /230
Free Standing Discount Superstore /813
ITE Unit
No. 1 Size
120.0
70.0
PM Peak Hour
62
Daily
0.52
Ca lured Tri Reduction 2
3,87
5.86
49.21
703
3,445
Pro' ected Total
54
279
689
3,459
Trip Generation Manual, Seventh Edition, Institute of Transportation Engineers.
2 A 20 percent captured trip reduction was applied to the Discount Superstore land use
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Land Use /ITE Code'
Low -Rise Residential condominium/Townhouse/230
Free Standing Discount Superstore /813
ITE Unit
DU
No. 1 Size
Directional Distribution'
IZTEMIZE
33% 42 21
EMI 70,0 49% 51% NM 138 MEM
120.0
67%
Ca►cured Tri, Reduction 2
Total New External Trips
Vehicles - PM Peak Hour
27 28 54
148
279
As shown, the planned developments are expected to add approximately 3,459 new trips to the roadway
network during an average weekday. The PM peak hour is expected to add approximately 279 new
vehicle trips.
Trip generation for the Proposed Project was estimated using the ITE Trip Generation Manual. The retail
land uses include a combination of small retail stores, several high turn over sit down restaurants, a home
improvement center and a bank with drive up tellers within the Project Site. Similar to the planned
developments, a 20 percent multi- purpose or captured trip reduction was applied to the retail uses.
Although the site plan identifies only one pad site (6,480 square feet) for restaurant use, it is expected that
some percentage of the other retail buildings would contain restaurant tenants as well. As such, a total of
20,000 square feet of high turn over restaurant space is assumed.
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft - August 9, 2005
Page 22
Land Use /ITE Code'
ITE Unit
No. / Size
PM Peak Hour
Daily
Rate Trips
Rate
Trips
Home Improvement Superstore
KSF
173.3
2.45
425
29.8
5,164
Specialty Retail /814
KSF
25.0
2.71
68
44.3
1,108
High Turn Over Sit Down Restaurant /932
MEM
20.0
10.92
218
2,543
Drive -in Bank/912
lignillE1111
45.74
►
246.5
1,356
Projected Subtotal
962
448
10,171
Ca, tared Tri, Reduction 2
192
2,034
770
MN
8,137
Projected Total
4 ®4 Trip Distribution
Lowe's Horne tmprov , Center Traffic Impact Study
Table 4 Year 2010 Proposed Project Trap Generation
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Table 4 -3 shows the PM peak hour and average daily trip generation for the Proposed Project based on
the expected land uses.
Land Use /ITE Code
Horne Improvement Superstore
Specialty Retail /814
High Turn Over Sit Down Restaurant /932
ITE Unit
KSF
No. / Size
25.0
20.0
5.5
Directional Distribution'
Enterin
47%
44%
61%
50%
53%
56%
39%
50%
Drive -in Bank/912
Ca atured Tri a Reduction 2
Total New External Trips
Vehicles - PM Peak Hour
200
30
126
98
38
85
126
95
379
425
68
218
192
NMI
770
'Trip Generation Manual, Seventh Edition, Institute of Transportation Engineers.
2 A 20 percent captured trip reduction was applied all land uses
3 The Horne Improvement Superstore includes a 141,300 SF Building and a 32,000 SF Garden Center. ITE does not differentiate Home Improvement
stores with or without garden centers; therefore, a total square footage of 173,300 was used to result in a conservative analysis.
As shown, the Proposed Project is expected to add approximately 8,137 new trips to the roadway network
during an average weekday. The PM peak hour is expected to add approximately 770 new vehicle trips.
Trip distribution refers to the geographic orientation of vehicles approaching or departing the study area.
The trip distribution in the Minneapolis -St. Paul metropolitan area is estimated using the Metropolitan
Council Regional TranPlan model. TranPlan is a computer travel demand model that includes the seven -
county metropolitan area and is used to forecast traffic on the area roadways.
Briefly, the modeling process involves a set of assumptions regarding changes in land use and
transportation. Land use is represented as a series of small geographic areas called Traffic Analysis Zones
(TAZs). The population, employment, retail, and other factors determine the amount of trips that are
either produced or attracted by these TAZs.
The travel demand modeling completed for the St. Croix River Crossing SDEIS incorporated significant
refinements to the 2030 Met Council socioeconomic data, roadway infrastructure and geographic size of
the TAZs. These base data files were obtained from SRF Consulting Group and Mn/DOT for use in this
study; and supported the development of the anticipated travel sheds and regional directional distribution.
The results of the TranPlan model were further adjusted based on local knowledge of travel patterns.
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The assumed trip distribution for the Proposed Project and other planned development parcels is
illustrated in Figure 4 -1. As shown, a significant portion of the expected vehicle trips are expected to be
attracted to and destined between the commercial uses and residential areas north of TH 36.
4.5 Trip Assignment/Forecast Volumes
The estimated new Proposed Project generated vehicle trips and the other planned development parcels
volumes were assigned to the surrounding roadway network based on the directional trip distribution of
traffic. In developing the trip assignment (i.e., travel routes), the following considerations were made:
O Directional access to local and regional roadways.
® Location of access points with respect to planned or proposed housing units.
• Roadway characteristics and roadway network.
• Location of existing congestion and problematic turning movements.
The forecast year 2010 No -build intersection turning movement volumes were obtained by summing the
existing volume with the expected background traffic volume and the planned development parcels
(Oakgreen Village and Wal -Mart Expansion) trip assignment. The year 2010 No -build PM peak hour
forecast traffic volumes (Scenario 2) are presented in Figure 4 -2. The forecast year 2010 Build
intersection turning movement volumes were obtained by summing the Proposed Project generated trip
assignment, and the 2010 No -build forecast volumes. The year 2010 Build PM peak hour forecast traffic
volumes are presented in Figure 4 -3 and Figure 4 -4 under the existing frontage road (Scenario 3) and
future frontage road configuration (Scenario 4) scenarios, respectively.
Table 4 -4 presents an overall summary of the estimated forecast year 203 0 ADT volumes expected along
a few of the key roadways within the study area. The 203 0 ADT volumes include the St. Croix River
Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvements, planned developments (i.e., Wal-Mart Expansion and
Oakgreen Village), the Proposed Project and a potential for a commercial development containing big
box tenants located east of the Project Site. As mentioned previously, the traffic impacts of a potential
commercial retail development, east of the Proposed Project Site will be evaluated in a future traffic
study.
Roadway Segment
TH 36 ( Norell Avenue to Oakgreen Avenue)
Oakgreen Avenue (58th Street to South Frontage Road)
Norell Avenue (South of South Frontage Road)
South Frontage Road (Novak Avenue to Oakgreen Avenue
58th Street (Norwich Avenue to Oakgreen Avenue)2
Norwich Avenue (South of South Frontage Road)
1 MnIDOT Traffic Flow Map, 2004. Volume increased by 2 percent to represent year 2005,
2 The PM peak hour is assumed to represent 10 percent of the ADT. ADT computed based on derived background
growth plus items in footnote 3.
3 Includes St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvements, Planned Developments, Proposed Project
and an assumed big box commercial development, located east of the Proposed Project and north of Oakgreen Village Townhomes.
Source:
1. St. Croix River Crossing Project 2004 Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement, SRF Consulting Group, Inc.
Travel Demand Forecasts Technical Memorandum, June 17, 2004 and Traffic Operation Analysis
Technical Memorandum, May 21, 2004
2. Alliant Engineering, Inc.
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft
#050049
Table 4 -4o Forecast Year 2030 ADT Volumes
2005
Existing
2
Lowe's Home tmproiv lent Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
2030
Buiid
58,600
8,050
13,200
10,300
6,300
7,500
August 9, 2005
Page 24
Er*
5.0 Proposed Project Impact Analysis
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
To assess the expected traffic impacts of the Proposed Project, a traffic operation analysis was completed
for the future year 2010 and under three study scenarios as discussed in Section 2.2. Comparing the
results of the various scenarios for each future study year allowed for deficiencies and specific project
related impacts to be identified. This section documents the traffic operation analysis results for the
following three scenarios:
• Scenario 2: Year 2010 No -build — background growth plus other planned developments.
• Scenario 3: Year 2010 Build — No -build conditions plus the Proposed Project (with existing
frontage road system).
• Scenario 4: Year 2010 Build - No -build conditions plus the Proposed Project (with the St. Croix
River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project).
The following sections document how the future roadway and intersection lane geometries, traffic control
and signal operations accommodate the forecast traffic volumes. Intersections or movements identified as
being deficient are discussed and considered in the evaluation of mitigation alternatives (Section 6.0).
5®1 Year 2010 No -build and Build Scenarios Intersection Lane Geometries and Traffic Control
(with Existing Frontage Road System)
The future No -build Scenario includes the existing intersection lane geometries and traffic control, as
previously illustrated in Figure 34, plus the addition of Norwich Avenue. Norwich Avenue terminates at
58 Street and the South Frontage Road. At both terminating intersections an exclusive left turn and right
turn lane are provided. Figure 54, discussed in the following section, illustrates the baseline lane
geometries at the Norwich Avenue /South Frontage Road and Norwich Avneuel5 8 Street intersections.
5 ®2 Year 2010 Build Intersection Lane Geometries and Traffic Control (with St. Croix River
Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvements)
The TH 36/Oakgreen Avenue, Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road and Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road intersections are planned to be reconstructed under the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing
and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project. Under the current Mn/DOT preliminary layout -- Alternative
B -1 — dated April 21, 2005, several intersection and roadway geometric changes are expected. Oakgreen
Avenue will be widened to a four -lane roadway beginning just south of the South Frontage Road and
extending northward through the North Frontage Road intersection. Both the North Frontage Road and
South Frontage Road intersections with Oakgreen Avenue will be relocated at a greater distance north and
south from TH 36, respectively. In addition, the TH 36/Oakgreen Avenue intersection will be relocated
approximately 330 feet to the east.
The existing traffic signal at TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue will be reconstructed to include protected left turn
phasing for all approaches. In addition, the North Frontage Road and South Frontage Road intersections
with Oakgreen Avenue are expected to be controlled by a traffic signal. Protected /permissive left turn
phasing for northbound /southbound traffic and permissive only phasing for eastbound /westbound
movements were determined to be optimal.
Figure 54 documents the future geometrics and traffic control at each of the key intersections evaluated
under the 2010 Build Scenario, with the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway
Improvements implemented.
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5 ®3 Scenario 2 — Year 2010 No -build Traffic Operation Analysis
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
The traffic operation analysis for the 2010 No -build scenario looked at each of the key intersection
turning movement volumes, overall intersection LOS, and individual movement LOS for a typical
weekday during the PM peak hour. Also analyzed were the approximate turn movement 95 percentile
queue lengths. The No -build scenario includes the area roadways background traffic growth estimates, the
Wal -Mart Expansion and Oakgreen Village. In addition, the Norwich Avenue Public Street Improvement
Project is also included, as discussed in Section 2.3 and Section 5.1. Figure 4 -2 gave the 2010 No -build
turning movement volumes used in the analysis.
5.301 Analysis and Results
The results of the analysis were extracted from Synchro6 for both the signalized and unsignalized
intersections. Intersection signal timing parameters at both TH 36 /0akgreen Avenue and TH 36/Norell
Avenue were optimized. In addition, traffic signal interconnect and optimized signal coordination was
included. The future year 2010 No -build PM peak hour turning movement LOS and overall intersection
LOS for each of the key intersections are illustrated in Figure 5 -2 The minor street, or stopped approach,
is the critical movement in consideration at unsignalized locations. Therefore, at each unsignalized
intersection the critical movement vehicle delay (seconds per vehicle) is also shown in Figure 5 -2.
The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are expected to operate at acceptable
levels during the PM peak hour, with exception to the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road
intersection. In addition, several turning movements or stop controlled approaches were identified as
having poor operations:
• The west approach and east approach (i.e., left, through and right turn movements) to the
Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road were reported to operate at a LOS F and LOS E,
respectively.
O The east approach (i.e., left, through and right turn movements) to the Oakgreen Avenue/North
Frontage Road were reported to operate at a LOS F.
e The east and west approach left turn movements at both the TH 3610akgreen Avenue and TH
36/Norell Avenue were reported to operate at a LOS E.
The results of the queuing analysis showed that during the PM peak hour there are no regular issues with
vehicles spilling through adjacent intersections or queues extending beyond available storage distances
with only a couple exceptions. The 95 percentile queue lengths on the north approach and south
approach to both the TH 36/Norell Avenue and TH 3 61Dakgreen Avenue intersections were reported to
extend beyond the adjacent frontage road intersections.
503.2 Identification of Deficiencies
Although the east and west approach left turn movements at the two TH 36 intersections are expected to
operate at a LOS E, these movements are not considered deficient. The 95 percentile queue lengths were
found to be within the available storage; therefore, an impact to through traffic is not expected.
Furthermore, left turn movements operating within a coordinated system most often experience longer
delays and are considered to be typical.
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Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Similar to the existing condition, the proximity of the North Frontage Road and South Frontage Road
intersections with Oakgreen Avenue and Norell Avenue is sub - standard, which presents both operational
and safety deficiencies within the transportation system. Vehicle delays and queue lengths extending
northward /southward from TH 36 and beyond the frontage road intersections will lead to motorists
adopting aggressive driving behavior to enter traffic flow, compromising the intersection safety. The
Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection stopped approach delays and vehicle queue lengths
were found to be substantially degraded beyond its current operating condition.
5.4 Scenario 3 — Year 2010 Build Traffic Operation Analysis (with Existing Frontage Road
System)
The traffic operation analysis for the 2010 Build scenario looked at each of the key intersection turning
movement volumes, overall intersection LOS, and individual movement LOS for a typical weekday
during the PM peak hour. Also analyzed were the approximate turn movement 95 percentile queue
lengths. The build scenario includes the area roadways background traffic growth estimates, other
planned developments, the Proposed Project and the existing frontage road system characteristics. In
addition, the Norwich Avenue Public Street Improvement Project is also included, as discussed in Section
23 and Section 5.1. Figure 4 -3 gave the 2010 Build (with existing frontage road system) turning
movement volumes used in the analysis.
504.1 Analysis and Results
The results of the analysis were extracted from Synchro6 for both the signalized and unsignalized
intersections. Intersection signal timing parameters at both TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue and TH 36/Norell
Avenue were optimized. In addition, traffic signal interconnect and optimized signal coordination was
included. The future year 2010 Build PM peak hour turning movement LOS and overall intersection LOS
for each of the key intersections are illustrated in Figure 5 -3. The minor street, or stopped approach, is
the critical movement in consideration at unsignalized locations. Therefore, at each unsignalized
intersection the critical movement vehicle delay (seconds per vehicle) is also shown in Figure 5 -3.
The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are expected to operate at acceptable
levels during the PM peak hour, with exception to the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road
intersection. In addition, several turning movements or stop controlled approaches were identified as
having poor operations:
• The west approach and east approach (i.e., left, through and right turn movements) to the
Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road were both reported to operate at a LOS F. The west
approach is expected to experience significant delays.
• The east approach and west approach (i.e., left, through and right turn movements) to the
Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road were both reported to operate at a LOS F.
• The west approach left turn movement to the Norell Avenue /South Frontage Road was reported
to operate at a LOS F.
• The east approach left turn movement at TH 36/Norell Avenue was reported to operate at a LOS
E
• The west and east approach left turn movements at TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue were reported to
operate at a LOS E and LOS F, respectively.
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Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
The results of the queuing analysis showed that during the PM peak hour there are no regular issues with
vehicles spilling through adjacent intersections or queues extending beyond available storage distances
with only a couple exceptions. The 95 percentile queue lengths on the north approach and south
approach to both the TI 13 6/Norell Avenue and TH I 36/Oakgreen Avenue intersections were reported to
extend beyond the adjacent frontage road intersections.
5A.2 Identification of Deficiencies
Although the east and west approach left turn movements at the two TH 36 intersections are expected to
operate at a LOS E and/or F, these movements are not considered deficient. The 95 percentile queue
lengths were found to be within the available storage; therefore, an impact to through traffic is not
expected. Furthermore, left turn movements operating within a coordinated system most often experience
longer delays and are considered to be typical.
Similar to the No -build condition, the proximity of the North Frontage Road and South Frontage Road
intersections with Oakgreen Avenue and Norell Avenue is substandard, which presents both operational
and safety deficiencies within the existing transportation system. Vehicle delays and queue lengths
extending northward /southward from TH 36 and beyond the frontage road intersections will lead to
motorists further adopting aggressive driving behavior to enter traffic flow. Based on the analysis, the
Proposed Project is expected to significantly degrade the operations of the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road intersection. Stopped approach delays and vehicle queues are expected to increase
significantly above and beyond its current and anticipated 2010 No -build operating condition.
Given the expected operation of the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection, motorists would
be expected to divert away from using the South Frontage Road to access Oakgreen Avenue. Norwich
Avenue will provide the Proposed Project with a connection to 58 Street, allowing motorists to access
Oakgreen Avenue south of the frontage road. Evaluation and discussion of measures to improve traffic
operations and to further encourage diversion will be presented in Section 6.0.
5 ®5 Scenario 4 — Year 2010 Build Traffic Operation Analysis (with St. Croix River Bridge
Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvements)
The traffic operation analysis for the 2010 Build scenario looked at each of the key intersection turning
movement volumes, overall intersection LOS, and individual movement LOS for a typical weekday
during the PM peak hour. Also analyzed were the approximate turn movement 95 percentile queue
lengths. The build scenario includes the area roadways background traffic growth estimates, other
planned developments, the Proposed Project, construction of Norwich Avenue and the proposed St. Croix
River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project. The future intersection lane geometrics
and traffic control are as illustrated in Figure 5-1. Figure 4-4 gave the 2010 Build (with St. Croix River
Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvements) turning movement volumes used in the analysis.
5.5.1 Analysis and Results
The results of the analysis were extracted from Synchro6 for both the signalized and unsignalized
intersections. Intersection signal timing parameters for each of the signalized intersections (TH
3 6 /vakgreen Avenue, TH 36/Norell Avenue, Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road and Oakgreen
Avenue /South Frontage Road) were optimized. In addition, traffic signal interconnect and optimized
signal coordination was included along TH 36. The Oakgreen Avenue frontage road traffic signals were
assumed to operate actuated uncoordinated. Future year 2010 Build PM peak hour turning movement
LOS and overall intersection LOS for each of the key intersections are illustrated in Figure 5 -4. The
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft - August 9, 2005
#050049 Page 32
minor street, or stopped approach, is the critical movement in consideration at unsignalized locations.
Therefore, at each unsignalized intersection the critical movement vehicle delay (seconds per vehicle) is
also shown in Figure 5-4.
The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are expected to operate at acceptable
levels during the PM peak hour. However, several turning movements or stop controlled approaches were
still identified as having poor operations:
O The west approach left turn movement to the Norell Avenue/South Frontage Road was reported
to operate at a LOS F.
O The east approach left turn movement at TH 36/Norell Avenue was reported to operate at a LOS
E
Lowe's Hone Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
O The west approach left turn movement at TH 3 6 /oakgreen Avenue was reported to operate at a
LOS E.
The results of the queuing analysis showed that during the PM peak hour there are no regular issues with
vehicles spilling through adjacent intersections or queues extending beyond available storage distances
with exception to only one intersection. The 95 percentile queue lengths on the north approach and south
approach to the TH 36/Norell Avenue intersection was reported to extend beyond the adjacent frontage
road intersections.
5.502 Identification of Deficiencies
The Deficiencies identified previously are addressed with the proposed St. Croix River Bridge Crossing
and TH 36 Improvement Project. The TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project is expected to accommodate
the forecast year 2010 Build scenario volumes with much improved traffic operations at each of the three
key intersections along Oakgreen Avenue.
Similar to previous scenarios and the No -build condition, the east approach left turn movement at the TH
3 6/Norell Avenue and the west approach left turn movement at the TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue intersection
are expected to operate at a LOS E. However, these movements are not considered deficient. The 95
percentile queue lengths were found to be within the available storage; therefore, an impact to through
traffic is not expected.
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft - August 9, 2005
#050049 Page 33
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6.0 Evaluation of Mitigation Alternatives
6J Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 - Roadway Geometrics
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
The results of the traffic analysis found the primary traffic operation deficiencies to be located at the
Frontage Road intersections with Oakgreen Avenue. The TIS also found that the planned TH 36 roadway
improvements implemented as part of the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing Project are expected to
eliminate these deficiencies, accommodating the forecast 2010 Build scenario traffic volumes with
acceptable LOS. The following summarizes the key geometric improvements included with the planned
TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project:
O Relocation of the TH 3 6 /0akgreen Avenue intersection approximately 330 feet to the east. The
relocation of this intersection provides for a uniform spacing of traffic signals along TH 36
(increased opportunity for signal progression) and provides for the opportunity to increase the
spacing of the North and South Frontage Road alignments.
• Realignment of the North and South Frontage Roads to provide intersections with Oakgreen
Avenue at a greater distance north and south of TH 36, respectively.
• The provision of dual left turn lanes on each approach to the TH 36 /0akgreen intersection.
O The addition of a second northbound and southbound through lane along Oakgreen Avenue
between the South Frontage Road and North Frontage Road.
• Installation of traffic signals at the Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road and Oakgreen
Avenue /South Frontage Road.
Although the above improvement measures address the identified deficiencies and will provide acceptable
LOS at the key intersections within the study area, Mn /DOT does not expect construction to be completed
until 2010. The Proposed Project is expected to be completed by 2007; therefore, the Proposed Project
related traffic impacts will remain unresolved for several years. To address the identified traffic
deficiencies resulting from the Proposed Project in the interim, the effectiveness and feasibility of several
alternative mitigation measures was completed.
Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 was developed to identify potential roadway geometric improvements
that could be implemented as a measure to address the traffic operation deficiencies identified in Section
5.4. However, given the location and magnitude of the identified geometric deficiencies and the
characteristics of the area roadways, implementation of roadway geometric improvements is limited. As
mentioned previously, the appropriate solution to addressing the defined traffic operation deficiencies will
be implemented with the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project.
Therefore, major reconstruction of the intersections along Oakgreen Avenue during the interim would not
be feasible nor would it constitute a wise investment.
Although major reconstruction is not feasible, minor capacity enhancements to the South Frontage Road
are still possible and could be cost - effective in the near term. To help address traffic operation
deficiencies in the interim at the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection and to provide safe
and efficient operations at the Norwich Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection, the following roadway
geometric mitigation measures should be considered:
• Reconstruct the South Frontage Road to be a three -lane cross - section with a two -way center left
turn lane from it current termination point near Novak Avenue to just east of the new Norwich
Avenue intersection. The termination of the three -lane section would correspond to the
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft - August 9, 2005
#050049 Page 38
Lane Geometries
MOE
West Approach
East Approach
South Approach
North Approach
IntersectioI3
Total
Left
Through
Right
Left
Through
Right
Left
Through
Right
Left
Through
Right
Existing Geometry
Delay (seciveh)
877.50
877 -50
877.50
121.50
121,50
121,50
8.60
0.00
0.00
1,60
3.70
3.70
258.00
Level of Service
F
F
F
F
F
F
A
A
A
A
A
A
F
Interim Mit 1:
Leff -turn Lanes
Delay (See/veil)
576.20
43.90
43.90
46.80
45.80
45.80
8.60
0.00
0.00
1.60
3.70
3,70
82.50
Level of Service
F
E
E
E
E
E
A
A
A
A
A
A
F
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
construction limits of the future TI 13 6 Improvement Project or at point where sufficient length of
left turn lane can be developed for the east approach to the Norwich Avenue /South Frontage
Road intersection.
0 Widen the east and west approaches to the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection
such that one exclusive left turn lane and a shared through/right turn lane can be striped. The
eastbound and westbound left turn lanes should be approximately 250 feet and 100 feet in length,
respectively.
The addition of the left turn lanes will provide two lanes of approach (one exclusive left turn and one
shared through/right turn) at each primary site access intersection along the South Frontage Road,
including Oakgreen Avenue.
A traffic operation analysis of the above roadway mitigation measure was completed to evaluate its
effectiveness. Table 64 summarizes the expected traffic operation improvement at the Oakgreen
Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection.
Table 64. Interim Mitigation Alternative 1— oak reen Avenue /South Frontage Road LOS
The traffic analysis found a significant improvement in traffic operations with the installation of the left
turn lanes. However, congestion and deficient traffic operations are still expected at the Oakgreen
Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection.
6.2 Interim Mitigation Alternative 2 — Directional Signing
Due to the high vehicle delays expected on the west approach to the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage
Road intersection, it is expected that a significant number of vehicles could potentially be diverted to 58
Street. Roadway directional signing on the exiting approach of each Project Site access point to Norwich
Avenue could be implemented to direct exiting vehicles to a less congested 58 Street. Even without the
installation of directional signing, traffic diversion would still be expected, once motorists have become
familiar with the Proposed Project, the surrounding roadway network and the problematic intersections.
The presence of signs directing exiting traffic to use 5 8th Street, rather than the South Frontage Road,
would provide greater encouragement and could be expected increase the trip diversion percentage.
The diverted trips would exit the Proposed Project via the 58 Street/Norwich Avenue intersection,
proceed to Oakgreen Avenue, and then proceed northbound on Oakgreen Avenue to access TH 36,
eastbound South Frontage Road or other northerly destinations. The travel time from the Project Site to
TH 36, via 58 Street, is expected to be approximately two minutes. Although this route is less direct, the
estimated travel time is expected to be Tess than for motorists utilizing the South Frontage Road. As such,
it may be reasonable to assume that 70 percent of the exiting traffic destined to the TH 36/Oakgreen
Avenue intersection would divert to 58 Street.
A traffic operation analysis of the above roadway mitigation measure was completed to evaluate its
effectiveness. Interim Mitigation Alternative 2 evaluation included the roadway geometric improvements
suggested in Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 plus the 70 percent exiting trip diversion. Figure 64
illustrates the forecast year 2010 Build PM peak hour turning movement volumes with the assumed 70
Alliant Engineering, Inc. -- Draft - August 9, 2005
#050049 Page 39
Lane Geometries
MOE
West
M l i a
Approach
East Approach
South Approach
North Approach
Intersection
Total
Through
Right
II= Through
Right
w i
Through
Right
•
Through
Right
Existing Geometry
Delay (seclveh)
877.50
877.50
877.50
121,50 121.50
121.50
8.60
0.00
0.00
1,60
3,70
3.70
258.00
Level of Service
EmnrmllEnlrBIMIEIIIIIEIII
Level of Service
F
F
A
A
A
A
A
A
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82.50
Interim Mit 1:
Left -turn Lanes
Delay (seclveh)
576.20
43.90
43.90
46.80 45.80 45.80
8.60
0.00
0.00
1,60
3.70
3.70
Level of Service
0.00
'i
i ummum
3.70
A
A
A
A
A
A
NEM
51.60
Interim Mit 2:
Left -turn Lanes
+ 70% Trip Diversion
Delay (seclveh)
411,90 47.10 47.10 52,50 62.50 62.50
8.60
0.00
0.00
1.80
4,00
4.00
Level of Service
1111111311111:111111111111111111111
A
A
A
A
A
A
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49.10
59th Street Connection:
Left-turn th St Cartes
+ 59th Street Connection
Delay (sedvela) 390.70 49.70 49.70 57.60 62.60 62.60
NMIZIIIIIIIMIMEMIEMIIIIIEIEII
8.60
A
0.00
0.00
1.80
4.00
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Lane Geometries
MOE
West Approach
East Approach
South Approach
North Approach
Intersection
Total
Left
Through
Right
Left
Through
Right
Left
Through
Right
Left
Through
Right
Existing Geonletry
Delay (seclveh)
877,50
877.50
877,50
121,50
121.50
121.50
8,60
0.00
0.00
1,60
3.70
3.70
258.00
Level of Service
F
F
F
F
F
F
A
A
A
A
A
A
F
Interim Mit 1:
Left -turn Lanes
Delay (seclveh)
576.20
43.90
43.90
46.80
45.80
45,80
8.60
0.00
0.00
1.60
3.70
3.70
82,50
Level of Service
F
E
E
E
E
E
A
A
A
A
A
A
F
Interim Mit 2:
Left -turn Lanes
+ 70% Trip Diversion
Delay (seclveh)
411.90
47.10
47.10
52.50
62.50
62.50
8.60
0.00
0.00
1.80
4.00
4.00
51.60
Level of Service
F
E
E
F
F
F
A
A
.4
A
A
A
F
percent trip diversion. The future year 2010 Build PM peak hour turning movement LOS and overall
intersection LOS for each of the key intersections are illustrated in Figure 6 -2® Table 6 -2 provides a
cumulative comparison of the expected traffic operation improvement at the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road intersection under the existing lane geometric, Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 and
Interim Mitigation Alternative 2 scenarios.
Table 6 -2. Interim Mitigation Alternative 2 -- Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontaie Road LOS
The results of the traffic operation analysis found an improvement in both the overall intersection delay
and the eastbound left turn movement delay at the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection. In
addition, all other key intersections were found to have sufficient capacity in accommodating the
expected trip diversion. However, congestion and deficient traffic operations are still expected at the
Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection.
6.3 59 Street Connection Alternative
Lowe's Horne Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
The City of Oak Park Heights currently retains right of way for the possible future construction of a new
59 Street, between Norwich Avenue and Oakgreen Avenue. The 59 Street right of way alignment is
located just south of the Xeel substation and would provide access to Oakgreen Avenue approximately
500 feet south of the South Frontage Road. 59 Street would provide improved site circulation and a
direct east/west connection between the Proposed Project Site and Oakgreen Avenue.
A traffic operation analysis for the 59 Street Connection was completed to evaluate its effectiveness. The
59 Street Connection Alternative included the roadway geometric improvements suggested in Interim
Mitigation Alternative 1 plus the reassignment of vehicle trips expected with the east/west connection.
Figure 6 ®3 illustrates the forecast year 2010 Build PM peak hour turning movement volumes with the 59th
Street Connection Alternative. The future year 2010 Build PM peak hour turning movement LOS and
overall intersection LOS for each of the key intersections are illustrated in Figure 6 =4. Table 6 -3 provides
a cumulative comparison of the expected traffic operation improvement at the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road intersection under the existing lane geometric, Interim Mitigation Alternative 1, Interim
Mitigation Alternative 2 and 59 Street Connection scenarios.
Table 6 -3. 59 Street Connection Alternative - Oak reen Avenue /South Frontage Road LOS
Alliant Engineering, Inc.
4050049
Draft
August 9, 2005
Page 40
Lowe's Horne Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
The results of the traffic operation analysis found a marginal improvement in both the overall intersection
delay and the eastbound left turn movement delay at the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road
intersection over Interim Mitigation Alternative 2. Similarly, all other key intersections were found to
have sufficient capacity in accommodating the forecast 2010 Build traffic volumes. However, congestion
and deficient traffic operations are still expected at the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road
intersection.
Although the TIS evaluated this option and a slight improvement in traffic operations can be expected
with the 59 Street Connection, construction of this roadway is not expected to be cost effective in the
interim.
O The location of the 59 Street right of way is not compatible with the future South Frontage Road
alignment implemented as part of the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway
Improvement Project. The existing 59 Street right of way would provide a full access
intersection with the South Frontage Road less than 100 feet away from the new Oakgreen
Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection location. Therefore, a substantial portion of 59 Street
would need to be realigned and reconstructed to provide adequate intersection spacing.
O The results of the 59 Street Connection indicate only a marginal improvement over the Interim
Mitigation Alternative 2 scenario, but at a significantly greater cost.
The inclusion of a 59 Street Connection or additional access point onto Oakgreen Avenue may become
more cost effective if redevelopment of land parcel east of the Proposed Project Site occurred. Costs of
such a connection would then be incorporated within the site development and could be designed to be
compatible with the planned TH 36 roadway improvements (not restricted to existing right of way).
Alliant Engineering, Inc. - Draft
#050049
August 9, 2005
Page 41
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7M Summary and Conclusions
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
The following sections provide a summary and brief overview of the Traffic Impact Study (TIS) prepared
for CSM Corporation and the City of Oak Park Heights.
7.1 Project Description and Purpose
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
CSM Corporation proposed to construct a mixed use commercial retail development on the southwest
quadrant of the TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue intersection in Oak Park Heights, Minnesota. The Proposed
Project involves the construction of a Lowe's Home Improvement Center (141,300 square foot store with
a 32,000 square foot outdoor Garden Center), 25,000 square feet of specialty retail stores, a 5,500 square
foot bank with drive -up tellers and 20,000 square feet of high -turn over sit down restaurants.
The purpose of the study is to provide a detailed analysis of potential traffic impacts that may result from
the Proposed Project and to identify options for mitigating these impacts.
7 ®2 Methodology and Assumptions
The following summarizes key methodology and assumptions included in evaluating the traffic impacts
associated with the Proposed Project.
• A total of six key intersections along Oakgreen Avenue, Norell Avenue and TH 36 were
identified and included in the traffic analysis. In addition, three key site access intersections were
also evaluated.
• In addition to accounting for regional background growth projections in the traffic analysis, two
planned land development parcels were also considered. These planned development parcels
include a 120 unit Townhome Development (Oakgreen Village) and a 70,000 square foot
expansion of the existing Wal -Mart store.
O Roadway improvement projects are planned in the vicinity of the Proposed Project. Oak Park
Heights is planning to construct a north /south public street (Norwich Avenue) between the South
Frontage Road and 5 8 Street. Norwich Avenue will be located west of Oakgreen Avenue and
immediately east of the Proposed Project Site.
O As part of the St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project, several
significant intersection capacity improvements will be implemented at the TH 3 6loakgreen
Avenue intersection and the North and South Frontage Road intersections with Oakgreen
Avenue. The TH 36 roadway improvements are currently scheduled to be constructed by year
2010.
• The traffic analysis was conducted for the existing year 2005 conditions, and three forecast year
2010 scenarios. The forecast year 2010 scenarios included the evaluation of a No -build Scenario
(background growth plus planned land developments), Build Scenario (with existing frontage
road geometries) and Build Scenario (with St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway
Improvements). Comparison of these three scenarios results in the expected Proposed Project
impact.
O The traffic operation analysis was conducted based on the established methodologies in the
Highway Capacity Manual using he computer software program Synehro6.
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Lowe's Home Improveinent Center Traffic Impact Study
73 Traffic Forecasts
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
• Deficiencies in the overall intersection delay, the individual movement delay and the movement
queues were identified and evaluated to determine the impacts to the intersection and overall
system traffic operations.
In order to estimate the traffic impacts within the study area, it was necessary to estimate the background
traffic growth as well as the amount of traffic expected to be generated by the Proposed Project.
• Background growth rates were based on the traffic forecasting completed for the St. Croix River
Crossing SDEIS. Based on comparisons made between 2030 No -build Scenario, 2030 River
Bridge Crossing Build Scenario and existing volumes, background growth rates on the roadway
network were derived.
O The two planned land development or expansion parcels are expected to generate an additional
279 PM peak hour and 3,460 daily vehicle trips by year 2010 above and beyond the regional
background growth.
O The Proposed Project is expected to generate approximately 770 PM Peak hour and 8,137 daily
vehicle trips (including a 20 percent captured trip reduction) upon completion.
• Regional directional distributions were developed based on the refined TranPlan model
developed for the St. Croix River Crossing SDEIS. The St. Croix River Crossing SDEIS prepared
by SRF Consulting Group, incorporated refinements to the 2030 Met Council socioeconomic
data, roadway infrastructure and TAZs to better approximate forecast traffic volumes.
• Forecast year 2010 No -build scenario volumes were developed by summing the forecast
background growth and the planned land development trip generation. The forecast year 2010
Build scenario volumes were developed by combining the No -build volumes and the Proposed
Project generated volumes.
7,4 Traffic Operation Analysis
In order to determine the impacts of the Proposed Project on the surrounding roadway network, a traffic
operation analysis has been performed.
7.4.1 Scenario 1- Existing Conditions
• The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are currently operating at
acceptable levels during the PM peak hour. However, several turning movements or stop
controlled approaches were identified as having longer delays at the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road and TH 3 6 /oakgreen Avenue intersections.
O Based on the results of the analysis and field observations, the proximity of the North Frontage
Road and South Frontage Road intersections with both Oakgreen Avenue and Norell Avenue is
sub-standard, which presents both operational and safety deficiencies within the existing
transportation system.
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74.2 Scenario 2 - 2010 No -build
Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
1 The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are expected to operate at
acceptable levels during the PM peak hour, with exception to the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road intersection. Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road is expected to experience
significant degradation by year 2010.
• Similar to the existing conditions, several turning movements or stop controlled approaches were
identified as having longer delays at the TH 36/Norell Avenue, TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue and
Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road intersections.
• Queue lengths forming on the northbound/southbound approaches to the TH 36/Norell Avenue
and TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue intersections are expected to extend beyond the adjacent Frontage
Road intersections.
• The proximity of the North Frontage Road and South Frontage Road intersections with Oakgreen
Avenue and Norell Avenue is substandard, which presents both an operational and safety
deficiency.
743 Scenario 3. 2010 Build (with Existing Frontage Road System)
® The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are expected to operate at
acceptable levels during the PM peak hour, with exception to the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road intersection. Stopped approach delays and vehicle queues at the Oakgreen
Avenue /South Frontage Road are expected to increase significantly above and beyond its current
and anticipated 2010 No-build operating condition
• Further degradation to the Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road is expected. The east approach
is expected to experience substantial delays.
• Although several movements at the TH 36/Norell Avenue and TH 3 6loakgreen Avenue
intersection are expected to operate at LOS E or F, these movement do not constitute a traffic
operation deficiency; rather, motorists merely experience a longer delay.
• Queue lengths forming on the northbound/southbound approaches to the TH 36/Norell Avenue
and Tf-I 3 6loakgreen Avenue intersections are expected to extend beyond the adjacent Frontage
Road intersections.
• The proximity of the North Frontage Road and South Frontage Road intersections with Oakgreen
Avenue and Norell Avenue is sub - standard, which presents both an operational and safety
deficiency.
7.40 4 Scenario 4 — 2010 Build (with St. Croix River Bridge Crossing and TH 36 Roadway
Improvements)
• The analysis indicates that all the key intersections in the network are expected to operate at
acceptable levels during the PM peak hour.
• The Deficiencies identified previously are addressed with the proposed St. Croix River Bridge
Crossing and TH 36 Improvement Project. The TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project is expected
to accommodate the forecast 2010 Build traffic volumes with an acceptable LOS at each of the
key intersections.
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Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
O Similar to previous scenarios and the No-build condition, the east approach left turn movement at
the TH 36/Norell Avenue and the west approach left turn movement at the TH 36 /0akgreen
Avenue intersection are expected to operate at a LOS E. However, these movements are not
considered deficient.
! The results of the queuing analysis showed that during the PM peak hour there are no regular
issues with vehicles spilling through adjacent intersections or queues extending beyond available
storage distances with exception to only one intersection. The 95 percentile queue lengths on the
north approach and south approach to the TH 36/Norell Avenue intersection was reported to
extend beyond the adjacent frontage road intersections.
7 ®5 Evaluation of Mitigation Alternatives
The TIS found that the planned TH 36 roadway improvements implemented as part of the St. Croix River
Bridge Crossing Project are expected to address the identified deficiencies. As such, the forecast 2010
Build scenario traffic volumes are expected to be accommodated at an acceptable LOS. To address the
identified traffic deficiencies resulting from the Proposed Project in the interim (prior to Mn /DOT
planned improvement project), the effectiveness and feasibility of several alternative mitigation measures
was completed.
* Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 includes widening the South Frontage Road to be a three -lane
cross - section with a two -way center left turn lane from it current termination point near Novak
Avenue to just east of the new Norwich Avenue intersection. The termination of the three -lane
section would correspond to the construction limits of the future TH 36 Improvement Project or
at point where a sufficient length of left turn lane can be developed for the east approach to the
Norwich Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection. Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 also
includes the widening of the east and west approaches to the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage
Road intersection such that one exclusive left turn lane and a shared through /right turn lane can
be striped. The eastbound and westbound left turn lanes should be approximately 250 feet and
100 feet in length, respectively.
• Interim Mitigation Alternative 2 includes the provision of roadway directional signing on the
exiting approach of each Project Site access point to Norwich Avenue. Roadway directional
signing could be implemented to direct exiting vehicles to a less congested 58 Street. Due to the
g g
high vehicle delays expected on the west approach to the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road
intersection, it is expected that a significant number of vehicles would divert to 58 Street.
• A third alternative evaluated the effectiveness of constructing a new 59 Street, between Norwich
Avenue and Oakgreen Avenue. The 59 Street right of way alignment is located just south of the
Xcel sub - station and would provide access to Oakgreen Avenue approximately 500 feet south of
the South Frontage Road.
• The results of the traffic operation analysis found a significant improvement in both the overall
intersection delay and the eastbound left turn movement delay at the Oakgreen Avenue /South
Frontage Road intersection with the implementation of both Interim Mitigation Alternative 1 and
Interim Mitigation Alternative 2. Although a significant improvement was found, congestion and
deficient traffic operations are still expected at the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road and
Oakgreen Avenue/North Frontage Road intersections.
• The results of the traffic operation analysis for the 59 Street Connection Alternative found only
a marginal improvement in both the overall intersection delay and the eastbound left turn
movement delay at the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection over Interim
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Lowe's Home Improvement Center Traffic Impact Study
Oak Park Heights, Minnesota
Mitigation Alternative 2. Similarly, congestion and deficient traffic operations are still expected
at the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road intersection.
Although the TIS evaluated this option and a slight improvement in traffic operations can be
expected with the 59th Street Connection, construction of this roadway is not expected to be cost
effective in the interim. The location of the 59 Street right of way is not compatible with the
future South Frontage Road alignment implemented as part of the St. Croix River Bridge
Crossing and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project. The inclusion of a 59 Street Connection or
additional access point onto Oakgreen Avenue may become more cost effective if redevelopment
of the parcel east of the Proposed Project Site occurred. Costs of such a connection would then be
incorporated within the site development and could be designed to be compatible with the
planned TH 36 roadway improvements.
7.6 Conclusion
An overall summary of the traffic analysis results are provided in Table 74. The table shows intersection
levels of service for each of the scenarios and mitigation alternatives evaluated. Based on the traffic
operation analysis, several traffic operation deficiencies were identified. However, the future Mn /DOT St.
Croix River Bridge and TH 36 Roadway Improvement Project is expected to address these identified
operation deficiencies, providing acceptable traffic conditions under the forecast 2010 Build traffic
volumes. To address the Proposed Project impact in the interim, several mitigation alternatives were
evaluated. Although the implementation of Mitigation Alternative 1 and Mitigation Alternative 2 will
improve traffic operations, the Oakgreen Avenue /South Frontage Road and Oakgreen Avenue/North
Frontage Road are still expected to operate with poor LOS, in the interim.
Alliant Engineering, Inc. M Draft - August 9, 2005
#050049 Page 50
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